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Bank of England holds at 3.75 per cent as ONS rents reach 3.8 per cent year-on-year, driven by London

Week ending 17 September 2026 · published 17 September 2026

The 11 to 17 September window produced three fresh official prints and a tracker refresh. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted on 16 September to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, a sixth consecutive hold. The ONS published the UK House Price Index for July 2026 via gov.uk together with its Price Index of Private Rents for August 2026 on 16 September. Rightmove refreshed its mortgage tracker on 17 September. No new Lloyds, Nationwide or Rightmove HPI print appeared in the window.

UK HPI for July: third consecutive month of slowing growth

The UK House Price Index for July 2026 put the average UK property at 273,000 pounds, up 0.7 per cent month-on-month and 1.4 per cent year-on-year, the third consecutive month of slowing annual growth. The ONS bulletin attributes the slowdown to a sharp deceleration in the South West, with London and the West Midlands also contributing. Within England, the North East was highest at plus 4.9 per cent year-on-year and London lowest at minus 3.3 per cent, with London flats down 6.6 per cent. Northern Ireland recorded plus 9.2 per cent in Q2 2026, its highest annual rate since Q4 2022. The June 2026 row was revised down from plus 2.0 to plus 1.5 per cent year-on-year; the next UK HPI release is 21 October 2026. UK transactions in July 2026 totalled 97,000 seasonally adjusted.

Rents: 3.8 per cent annual rise driven by London

The ONS Price Index of Private Rents put the UK average monthly rent at 1,400 pounds in August 2026, up 3.8 per cent year-on-year, up from 3.7 per cent in July and the highest annual rate since December 2025. The bulletin attributes the rise mainly to London, where annual rent inflation reached its highest level since October 2025. England recorded plus 4.0 per cent to an average of 1,459 pounds, Wales plus 4.3 per cent to 846 pounds, Scotland plus 1.1 per cent to 1,013 pounds and Northern Ireland plus 1.6 per cent in the 12 months to June 2026. The Price Index of Private Rents became National Statistics on 20 May 2026.

Bank Rate held 6 to 3, with conflict-anchored framing

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent at its meeting ending 16 September 2026, a sixth consecutive hold, voting 6 to 3. Catherine Mann, Megan Greene and Huw Pill voted for an immediate rise to 4 per cent. The decision page reads that the Middle East conflict has disrupted energy transportation and supply, raising prices and pushing up households' motor fuel costs and utility bills; that mortgage rates for households and borrowing costs for firms are higher than before the conflict; and that there are more people looking for work than jobs available, which is containing the effects of energy price rises and keeping overall inflation from going up as much. Twelve-month CPI inflation was 3.1 per cent in August, 1.1 percentage points above the Bank's 2 per cent target. The next MPC decision is 5 November 2026.

Mortgages, lender indices and supply

The Rightmove daily mortgage tracker, refreshed on 17 September, put the average two-year fixed rate at 5.06 per cent, unchanged week-on-week, with framing now anchored on the Bank Rate hold. The Lloyds House Price Index (formerly Halifax) August 2026 reading remains the freshest lender index at minus 0.4 per cent year-on-year to an average of 298,468 pounds, the first annual fall in either lender series since November 2023. Nationwide's August reading was plus 1.6 per cent to 275,465 pounds. Rightmove reported buyer demand up 5 per cent in the opening week of September, against a five-year average of 0.4 per cent, with London at plus 9 per cent.

Sources

We report what the data shows — no forecasts, no investment advice. For local detail, see house prices by area and the monthly market report.